Battle for UP: It's back to Mandal against Kamandal

By Saiyed Moziz Imam Zaidi

New Delhi, Jan 15 (IANS) After spate of resignations from BJP, the narrative of the big battle of Uttar pradesh has slightly shifted from the Hindutva to Mandal, as the resignees have alleged that BJP ignored the welfare of backward castes and had ignored issue of reservation in the state which the BJP has denied.

Each leader who had quit used the same language in their resignations and it's well though a strategy to corner BJP on the issue of social justice, that is why nobody is talking about minority but of backward class which comprises a large chunk of the population. The exits have created an impression that BJP is ignorant of the issues of backward caste which the party has denied and it believes that the community is in sync with the BJP's social engineering formula which has won three big elections in UP since 2014.

BJP Minister Siddharth Nath Singh says, "the biggest OBC face is Prime Minister Narendra Modi."

Delhi based independent analyst Rahul Varma says, "the SP will try to make it forward-backward contest. Will the SP succeed in this -- can't say for sure."

He adds that the rebels are joining SP because, "other players will be on the margin with very little chance to win."

Former BJP ministers Swami Prasad Maurya and Dharam Singh Saini along with other MLAs, on Friday, formally joined the Samajwadi Party along with their supporters. The others are likely to join the party in coming days.

Maurya accused the BJP of coming to power in 2017 by duping backward castes. He said that the BJP had projected Keshav Maurya as chief minister, but then brought 'someone else from Gorakhpur like a Skylab'. Maurya said that all his efforts would be to free Uttar Pradesh from the misrule of the BJP. He said that the Yogi Adityanath government has misled the people of the state.

"I want to tell the BJP that its countdown to failure begins today," he said.

Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav, while welcoming the leaders into his party, said that the BJP was robbing the poor to give benefit to the rich. Taking a dig at deputy Chief Minister Keshav Maurya, he said, "Now that these leaders have come here, I wonder what will happen to those who are made to sit on stools."

The experts differ in opinion that BJP is champion of Social engineering but not of social justice as many leaders who quit the BJP have long history and association for struggle against injustice meted out to their community socially and have huge following.

Another Delhi based independent analyst Shakil Akhtar says, "there is a feeling in the defectors that they can't return to their constituency on a BJP symbol so they went to the party which has social justice in it roots while the BJP was dependent on social engineering."

Experts say that BJP has created a winning combination in UP with taking all communities in the state which was once a winning formula for SP & BSP but was disenchanted and now the BJP is facing the same but still Yogi at its forefront, BJP will play the Hindutva issue carefully to overcome Mandal. As the Chief Minister carefully carved out 80:20 formula and threw it in public domain to debate and gave an issue and line to his supporters. While the experts believe that now the situation could reach to 50-50,and BJP will not have the clean sweep it expected.

The experts believe that the real issues are inflation, Covid deaths, stray animals, unemployment and the BJP has not been able to gauge the minds of its own MLAs and ministers.

The SP is having the last laugh in terms of defections as all roads lead to the party office on Vikramaditya Marg in Lucknow. The rebels from the BJP BSP and the Congress are lining up at Akhilesh Yadav's door, which analysts believe is in favour of the SP, as leaders like Maurya have a strong ground presence and feedback.