Can the results of Maharashtra, Jharkhand Assembly, and other by-elections reflect on the future political arena?

The results of the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, scheduled to be announced on November 23, 2024, along with the outcomes of Assembly and Parliamentary by-elections across different states, are likely to have a significant impact on the future political landscape. These results could influence upcoming elections, including the Delhi Assembly elections in 2025.  

The outcomes of the four Assembly by-elections are particularly crucial for Punjab's political future. In an unexpected move, Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) has abstained from fielding candidates in these elections. However, it remains unclear whether the SAD(B) cadre will abstain from voting entirely, support a particular political party, or opt for NOTA or independent candidates. The SAD(B) vote could play a decisive role in determining the winners, especially in multi-cornered contests where narrow margins often decide the outcome. Anti-incumbency sentiments and voter behaviour remain unpredictable, further complicating the political calculus.  

The candidates contesting these by-elections come with strong political backgrounds, emphasising win-ability as their priority. The political dynamics in Punjab are further underscored by recent developments:  

- In the 2022 Punjab Assembly elections, Congress secured victories in Dera Baba Nanak, Chabewal, and Gidderbaha constituencies, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won Barnala.  
- The Chabewal seat witnessed a dramatic shift when the Congress MLA switched allegiance to AAP and later won a Parliamentary seat from Hoshiarpur.  
- Of the four seats now in contention, Congress had won three, and AAP secured one in the previous Assembly elections.  

The BJP, buoyed by a major victory in the recent Haryana Assembly polls, is optimistic about its performance in the Punjab by-elections. A strong showing could bolster its position ahead of the Delhi Assembly elections in early 2025.  

In Punjab, these by-elections are expected to set the stage for future power struggles and political realignments. The resignation of Sukhbir Singh Badal as President of SAD(B) further complicates the equation, potentially leading to new alliances and strategies in Punjab's political arena.  

Looking ahead, the announcement of municipal corporation and committee election dates is also anticipated, adding another layer of unpredictability to the political scenario. These elections, though local in scale, could serve as a barometer for broader political trends across the state.  

Authored by:
Rajat Kumar Mohindru
Journalist, 
Jalandhar City.