Market under pressure as momentum beaks

By Arun Kejriwal
The week gone by had four trading sessions but the action and drama that unfolded, was on expected lines. The final closing does not give any sense of what transpired during the four sessions.

For the record book, BSESENSEX lost 107.97 points or 0.19 per cent to close at 55,329.32 points. NIFTY lost 78.60 points or 0.48 per cent to close at 16,450.50 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 0.60 per cent, 0.65 per cent and 0.89 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP was down 1.14 per cent while BSESMALLCAP lost 2.27 per cent. To continue with the story, BSEFMCG was up 3.92 per cent while BSEMETAL lost 8.62 per cent.

In individual stocks one saw Hind Unilever gain Rs 214 or 8.90 per cent followed by Britannia Industries gaining 8.89 per cent and Nestle 7.03 per cent. On the losing side, Vedanta was down 17.99 per cent followed by Hindalco 8.65 per cent, JSW Steel 8.54 per cent and Tata Steel down 5.82 per cent. The bulk of these gains and losses came on Friday when the market was sharply down. Hind Unilever contributed gains of 108 points on BSESENSEX while Tata Steel lost 88 points.

The benchmark indices made new highs, both on intraday basis and closing basis during the week as well. BSESENSEX touched 56,118.570 points on intraday basis and 55,792.27 on closing basis. NIFTY made an intraday high of 16,701.85 points and 16,614.60 points on closing basis. The breadth of the markets was extremely negative and for every five declining stocks, there was just one gainer.

The Indian Rupee lost 13 paise or 0.18 per cent to close at Rs 74.38 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones hit a new lifetime high and intraday high on Monday the 16th of August at 35,631 points and 35,625.4 points before correction set in. The week closed with losses of 395.30 points or 1.11 per cent at 35,120.08 points. Concerns on Fed tapering, rising inflation and fallout of Afghanistan withdrawal are top on the minds of US markets.

The week gone by saw five primary issues list with two of them making their debut at a discount to the issue price. These were Windlas Biotech Limited and Car Trade Tech Limited. As the week progressed yet another stock, Krsnaa Diagnostics slipped into negative territory. The two that are trading above par are Devyani International and Exxaro Tiles. The week ahead sees the remaining three primary issues list on Monday and Tuesday. The possibility of all three of them having a poor showing is quite likely and the record book would say that of the last 8 listings, six would be in the red. These are Nuvoco Vistas, Aptus housing and Chemplast Sanmar. Further, there have been no new issues in the previous week and none are expected in the coming week. A lull of 15 days seems like a shocker with the spate of issues that we have witnessed. Four issues opening on a single day.

Its not far to see that this state is brought about by the greed of private equity players with promoters and merchant bankers responsible in equal quantities, who have been pushing valuation parameters to beyond reality and valuing the companies at what can be best described as 'obscene valuations'. Post greed of this magnitude there can be only one fallout and that is disaster.

On the Covid-19 front, the world saw 21,21,62,969 patients, 44,36,906 deaths and 18,97,93,091 patients who had recovered. In India, we saw 3,24,24,234 patients, 4,34,399 deaths and 3,16,36,469 patients who had recovered. Compared to the previous week, the world saw 46,21,286 new patients, 69,533 deaths and 37,53,874 patients who had recovered. In India, we saw 2,31,658 new patients, 3,146 deaths and 2,60,454 patients who had recovered. The latest count of vaccinations has moved up to 58.14 crore. The pace of vaccination is encouraging and it appears that the hesitancy of people in getting themselves vaccinated is abating.

The week ahead sees August futures expire on Thursday the 26th of August. The current level of NIFTY at 16,450 points means that the August series is ahead by 672 points or 4.26 per cent. This clearly shows that bulls are in control of the series and it appears impossible that they could lose control. While the mood of the market has swung from bullish to more of a corrective one, to lose so much in a mere four days looks virtually impossible.

Markets in the last week made a new high, corrected from there, midcap and Smallcap stocks were under severe pressure and we saw a heavyweight stock like Hind Unilever gain sharply. The strategy going forward which has been to sell on rallies and buy on sharp dips is being modified. While the broad thinking remains the same, an added caution is being added that buying would be deferred for a week or until key support levels are tested or reached. Readers would recall the resistance zones of 53,000 levels on BSESENSEX and 15,950 levels on NIFTY. These would become key support zones and should be used to buy in the market. Until these levels are reached it makes sense to wait for sharp corrections or the trend becoming clearer. Primary market would add to the pains of the secondary market in the coming week as well.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)