MOGA BYE-ELECTION: A political gambling on defectors and betrayal issues

Both the major political parties in the largest democracy of India - Congress and BJP - are surviving on alliance at the centre as well as in the states. The political alliance or coalition is in fact an agreement for cooperative between various political parties with common political agenda, normally for the purpose of contesting an election and forming government after coming in power.

Take the example of Punjab where Akali and BJP are having alliance and in power for the second term like that of Congress in the Centre. 

The Moga bye election has become a political gambling for the alliance of Akali-BJP in Punjab where Sukhbir Singh Badal, deputy chief minister is making all out efforts to win the seat by showing his strength and motivating the leaders of Congress by merging with the Akalis whereas Capt. Amrinder Singh has raised the question of defection of political parties.  The Badal too was once a Congress candidate as he was elected to the Punjab Vidhan Sabha from Malout in 1957 as a Congress candidate.  In 1966-68, out of 81 candidates in Haryana Assembly, 44 members changed the political parties, in which one candidate 5 times, 2 candidates  four times, 3 candidates three times and four two times and 34 one time. One Gya Lal changed three times in one day, which gave birth to the phrase ‘Aaya Ram Gya Ram’ in  the political dictionary and there was political instability resulting in frequent fall of governments.

Sukhbir Singh Badal should not forget that the politics of Haryana cannot be repeated in Punjab on the reasons that Akalis are not in power in Punjab and running the government with alliance of BJP and it will remain in this position till such time it is separated from BJP, which is not possible in the near future.  Secondly, the rule of changing the political party was not in vogue in 1966-68.  Sukhbir has even clamed of joining of about half a dozen congress leaders in Akalis and said to this extent event that ‘he will choose diamond from the stones’ and the diamond selected is Joginder Pal Jain who had already a Congress MLA for two terms, who in the past, merging in the political parties and then leaving, had a criminal record.  He remained in jail for some months and virtually pending criminal cases.  Sukhbir had criticised him in 2012 elections from Moga seat on the issue of his criminal past record.  In fact, by taking the Jain in Akali party, he has backed out from his own statements of vanish the criminals from the party which he himself said when one police officer was murdered by one of the Akali leader in Amritsar.  This is the reason that for joining the Akali Dal he has to resign from the Assembly  to fight election from Moga bye elections as nominee of Akali Dal.

In Punjab, Congress cannot blame Sukhbir Badal for merging of leaders politics as it itself has started following the same footsteps and it is a separate thing that it could not get so much success as it does not have any power to fight against Akalis nor any government machinery to create terror for the Opposition.  Congress does not have even any government posts to give allurement to the leaders changing the party.

The steps taken by Sukhbir Badal could be a romantic turn in the politics and it is going to be a difficult task for Akalis to win the Moga bye elections.  The party leaders should clearly understand that Parkash Singh Badal had to go to Moga for election campaign despite his illness and confining to bed for about a week’s time.  Now two factors are involved, one in case Akali wins from Moga, it will get a chance to snub the Opposition from its poor administrative record, cropped due to failure in implementing the poll promises.  But in case, Moga seat is lost, it will be a big loss to the party and it will become basis for the weaknesses of Sukhbir Badal besides it will be an indication of unpleasantness for Lok Sabha elections for 2014.

In case the Congress wins, then the possibility of retaining the presdientship of Capt Amrinder Singh are bright and might lead the elections in 2014.

Only the time will tell as to which way the wind blows and as to what strategy has worked, on the outcome of Moga bye elections? But for alliance in power, it is certainly a political gambling on defectors and betrayal issues.  

(Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author in this article are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of City Air News.)