New DHL Trade Growth Atlas: Strong outlook for South Asia and India despite disruptions in global supply chains

Mumbai, September 26, 2022: DHL and NYU Stern School of Business have published the new DHL Trade Growth Atlas, which maps the most important trends and prospects of global trade in goods. The report covers 173 countries, providing valuable business intelligence for policymakers and industry leaders. Despite recent shocks and market pessimism, it shines a positive light on the resilience of global trade.

  International trade in goods has surged as high as 10% above pre-pandemic levels
  Despite the war in Ukraine, trade is projected to grow faster in 2022 and 2023 than it did over the previous decade
  New trade growth leaders emerging; India, Vietnam, and the Philippines stand out on both speed and scale of projected trade growth through 2026
  From 2000 to 2021, trade grew faster in South & Central Asia, roughly doubling the region’s share from 2.3% to 4.5% (primarily due to India’s share rising from 0.7% to 2.2%)

“Our aim is for the DHL Trade Growth Atlas to become a go-to resource for understanding and navigating shifts in the global trade landscape. In the current global business environment, DHL can help customers rethink certain supply chains, basing them on a sensible trade-off between cost and risk so that they are both efficient and secure. As the world's leading logistics provider, we offer solutions for all logistics requirements, and have proven to provide stable and reliable services even in volatile market environments,” says John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express.

There was a surge of interest at the start of the pandemic in shortening supply chains and producing goods closer to customers. However, as trade recovered and global supply chains delivered a record amount of goods, many companies paused reshoring and nearshoring plans. Emerging economies, particularly those in Southeast and South Asia, became important exporters of sophisticated capital goods such as industrial equipment, engines, and raw materials.

“It is fantastic to see emerging economies racing ahead in global trade. South Asia is expected to rapidly increase its share of global trade, with India doubling its trade volume growth rate in the next five years. Given the growing number of MSMEs in the region, it is only natural to enter this market and establish a strong supply chain network to access the ecosystem. We know that global trade growth impacts economic growth rates and enables countries to reduce inflation, as they gain access to key inputs such as industrial goods and raw materials through multiple trade routes. According to the data we have gathered, the shift in trading patterns will result in higher quality goods produced versus the quantity of goods produced by emerging markets in the future," says R.S Subramanian, SVP South Asia, DHL Express.