Political leaders on edge in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir Assembly Elections while voters remain silent

The results of the Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections are expected to have a significant impact on the upcoming assembly elections in two other states in December, as well as on the by-elections to state assemblies and the Lok Sabha. These elections are crucial for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), especially after the party failed to secure a simple majority in the 2024 parliamentary elections. The BJP formed an alliance government by partnering with other political parties within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The outcomes of these two states could also indicate the political future of several northern states going to the polls in 2025.

While political leaders are actively campaigning, the voters seem to be in a wait-and-watch mode. Senior leaders from various parties are leaving no stone unturned in their efforts. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, along with other cabinet ministers, are leading the BJP’s campaign. On the Congress side, Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, and other senior leaders are expected to be heavily involved in their party’s campaign.

The recent bail granted to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal by the Supreme Court has energized the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) cadre. Kejriwal's release has boosted the party’s morale. With Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann and other AAP leaders likely to campaign, the party is hopeful of a strong showing, particularly given that AAP governs in neighboring Delhi and Punjab.

Congress leaders in Haryana are also optimistic, but the presence of AAP candidates has created uncertainty, particularly due to the division of votes. With Congress and AAP having contested the 2024 parliamentary elections as allies, offering one seat to AAP in Haryana, the question remains whether AAP can draw votes away from the BJP or Congress. It’s too early to predict which party will bear the brunt of this vote division, and regional parties may also play spoiler for the national parties. There is widespread speculation that Haryana could once again see a hung assembly, leading to the possibility of coalition-building and defections between parties.

Both BJP and Congress are hopeful. The BJP is aiming for a third consecutive win, while Congress believes this is their best chance at victory in years. The ultimate outcome may depend on how many votes are captured by AAP and the regional parties. With several candidates switching parties or running as independents, there is potential for more independent candidates to win seats this time around.

In Jammu & Kashmir, the BJP is hopeful that the abolition of Article 370 will garner voter support, while Congress and its United Progressive Alliance (UPA) partners are banking on their coalition to perform well. Ultimately, it is the voters who will decide the fate of the parties based on their satisfaction with infrastructure development, tourism, and other public welfare initiatives over the past four to five years.

Authored by: 
Rajat Kumar Mohindru  
Journalist,  
Jalandhar City.