Quote by Pushan Sharma, Director-Research, CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics following ban on white rice exports

“Despite two curtailing moves last fiscal -- ban on broken rice exports, and 20% duty on non-basmati exports ­­– India’s overall rice exports rose 5-6% even as overall production fell.

To boot, as of July 1, 2023, rice stock with the Food Corporation of India is down a fifth on-year.

The consequent tight supplies meant domestic prices rose 14-15% last fiscal.

The government clearly viewed these as red lines from a domestic food security and inflation point of view.

We expect Thursday’s blanket ban to reduce India’s rice exports by ~4-5 billion tonne this fiscal, or more than a fifth of what was exported last fiscal.

That should improve domestic supplies and have a moderating effect on retail prices.

India has been the biggest exporter of rice in the past couple of years, accounting for a third of global exports.”