Range-bound markets waiting for news

ARUN KEJRIWAL

Markets were volatile last week and managed to close just about flat for the week. They gained on two of the five trading sessions and lost on the remaining three. What is important is that the result season for Q3 is almost over and just three more days remain for results to be declared.

By and large results have been in line with no major surprises on either side. BSESENSEX lost 159.18 points or 0.26 per cent to close at 60,682.72 points while NIFTY gained 2.45 points or 0.01 per cent to close at 17,856.50 points.

The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.17 per cent, 0.19 per cent and 0.28 per cent, respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 1.81 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was up 1.44 per cent.

The Indian Rupee was under pressure and lost 67 paisa or 0.82 per cent to close at Rs 82.50 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones had a flattish week losing on three of the five days and gaining on just two days. It lost 56.74 points or 0.17 per cent to close at 33,869.27 points.

RBI in its MPC meeting raised Repo rates by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent. Post the rate hike, markets were stable on Wednesday when the same was announced.

The Adani Saga continues and various stake holders have expressed confidence in what is happening. From a market perspective, the fact that shares are becoming steady and volumes which had become huge and of a speculative nature have reduced significantly. This would allow further stability to be witnessed in prices going forward.

Markets saw a better width last week and this is borne out by the fact that the Midcap and Smallcap indices gained while benchmark indices remained flattish.

In what could be a cause for concern was the tweet by Deepinder Goyal the CEO and MD of Zomato Limited, congratulating Vijay Shekhar of Paytm on becoming profitable.

"Congratulations on becoming profitable -- Sorry a bit late to the party -- was so busy working on our own profitability." While the market took this as a sign of the company (Zomato) becoming profitable and saw its shares rise significantly, punters were disappointed when a couple of days later the company reported a 5X rise in quarterly losses on significantly higher turnover.

Wonder, was the tweet a joke or meant to mislead? In any case, with social media becoming so relevant, it would be interesting to see how the regulators react.

In very significant news, India has discovered lithium reserves of 5.9 million tons in J&K. This is really big news and would go a long way in creating the EV infrastructure. Incidentally this would be the second highest reserve figure anywhere in the world.

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, volatility in a broad range bound movement would be the order of the day. Crucial levels for the markets are 61,343 on BSESENSEX and 18,265 points on NIFTY being the high points that need to be crossed and then sustained.

An earlier and closer target would be 18,000 on NIFTY and 61,150 on BSESENSEX. The major support on the lower side would be at 17,000-17,200 on NIFTY.

This would correspond to 57,250-57,850 on BSESENSEX. Markets are looking for news flow which could drive them in either direction. In case there is none, then they would drift and as the saying goes, still waters run deep.

FPI continuing to sell on 4 of the five days indicates that they are pulling out money and investing in China. This could be a negative factor for markets and needs to be looked out for. Trade cautiously.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)